Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ethan PeckoPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trammell homered to right (359 feet).2–6
- 8Jensen singled to right, Rave scored.2–5
- 6Peña reached on infield single to third, Trammell scored, Wade Jr. to third.1–5
- 5Alvarez homered to right (385 feet).1–4
- 5Wade Jr. homered to right (365 feet).1–3
- 2Varsho homered to right center (407 feet).1–2
- 1Peña homered to left (394 feet).1–1
- 1Garcia grounded into double play, second to first, Jensen scored, Caglianone out at second, Witt Jr. to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML KC +129 / HOU -156
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +4 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Miguel Ullola: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +49 Elo | HOU 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–49 | Road vs home | 38–3920th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301479 | Elo rating | 149417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–73 | 78–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 29–42 |
| Underdog | 57–40 | 49–32 |
| Overs–unders | 66–80–6 | 74–69–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 13–11 HOU in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.