Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sogard doubled to center, Story scored.1–5
- 7Durbin singled to left, Sogard scored, Durbin out stretching at second.1–4
- 6Abreu doubled to right, Rutschman scored and Gasper scored.1–3
- 6Jensen homered to right (386 feet).1–1
- 4Rutschman singled to center, Anthony scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 66%
- ML KC +183 / BOS -225
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.0%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -196
- KC +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −13 | KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +42 Elo | BOS 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3027–46 | Road vs home | 36–3720th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–70 | 73–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 41–57 |
| Underdog | 56–37 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 66–76–6 | 69–75–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 7–16 BOS in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.