Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Eli WhiteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Payton TollePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4
- Kyle BradishPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 2White homered to left center (384 feet), Durbin scored and Monasterio scored.3–1
- 1Encarnacion-Strand hit a ground rule double, Mayo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -135 / BAL +112
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.6%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -122
- BAL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +32 Elo | BOS 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3043–31 | Road vs home | 34–3722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 5th of 301542 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–72 | 72–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 39–54 | 32–42 |
| Underdog | 32–18 | 40–29 |
| Overs–unders | 68–71–4 | 69–69–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 27–24 BAL in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 51.