Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rumfield homered to right center (404 feet), Moniak scored.2–4
- 7Holliday homered to right (401 feet).2–2
- 3Henderson grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Narváez scored, Alonso out at second.1–2
- 2McCarthy singled to center, Veen scored.0–2
- 2Amador homered to right (396 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML BAL -156 / COL +129
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 61.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.9 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +78 Elo | BAL 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 11th of 3035–35 | Road vs home | 27–3929th of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Elo rating | 140930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–67 | 72–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–39 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 67–61 |
| Overs–unders | 68–65–5 | 65–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–3 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.