Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cowser grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mayo scored, Alexander out at second, Basallo to third. Baltimore Orioles challenged: call on the field was overturned.2–1
- 5Basallo doubled to center, Beavers scored.1–1
- 4Beck singled to center, Goodman scored, Beck to second, Rumfield to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML BAL -120 / COL +112
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 61.7%, market 53.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -116
- COL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.7 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −20 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +83 Elo | BAL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 27–3828th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 141030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–66 | 71–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–38 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 66–61 |
| Overs–unders | 68–64–5 | 65–68–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–3 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.