Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting3-5
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-2
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kiner-Falefa doubled to right, Story scored and Gasper scored.5–0
- 6Wong singled to center, Duran scored, White to second.3–0
- 6White singled to left, Sogard scored and Story scored, Duran to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BOS -126 / BAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.4%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 3.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −9 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +52 Elo | BOS 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–31 | Road vs home | 34–3621st of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 149417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–72 | 72–70 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–54 | 32–42 |
| Underdog | 32–18 | 40–28 |
| Overs–unders | 68–70–4 | 69–68–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 26–24 BAL in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 50.