Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Jahmai JonesBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jedixson PaezPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones homered to left (420 feet), Anthony scored.9–6
- 7White doubled to left, Gasper scored and Wong scored.9–4
- 6Abreu scored on error, Durbin safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rodden, Durbin safe at second on error.9–2
- 5Montes homered to center (407 feet).9–1
- 4Raleigh doubled to left, Rodríguez scored.8–1
- 3Montes singled to right, Naylor scored, Young to second.7–1
- 2Arozarena homered to left (382 feet), Montes scored and Rodden scored.6–1
- 2Rodden reached on infield single to second, Young scored, Montes to second.3–1
- 2Crawford hit sacrifice fly to right, Naylor scored, Young to third.2–1
- 1Gasper homered to right center (404 feet).1–1
- 1Canzone homered to right center (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML SEA -101 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 59.7%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.4 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −9 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Jedixson Paez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +68 Elo | BOS 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 3027–43 | Road vs home | 35–3216th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–82 | 69–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–60 | 38–51 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 69–61–8 | 65–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 10–13 BOS in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.