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Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Mariners.TV, Sportsnet, TVA

Away

Mariners

64-73

0–7

at

Home

Blue Jays

68-70

SEA 55%TOR 45%

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Rogers Centre · MLB.TV, Mariners.TV, Sportsnet, TVA

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.

TOR75%50%75%SEAStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mariners
  • Cal RaleighBatting1-3
  • Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays
  • Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Bateman doubled to left, Okamoto scored, Straw to third.0–7
  • 8Giménez singled to center, Lukes scored and Springer scored, Okamoto to second.0–6
  • 6Okamoto homered to center (405 feet).0–4
  • 5Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Straw scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.0–3
  • 1Kirk homered to left center (398 feet), Bateman scored.0–2

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mariners 55%

LeanMiss
SEA 55%TOR 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
SEA 55%
ML SEA -129 / TOR +121
Pre-line forecast
SEA 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SEA 50%
Ratings vs. market
−5.6 pts
SEA: Elo 49.9%, market 55.5%
Fair odds
SEA -124
TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SEA 4.2 – 3.8 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSEATORWhy
Team rating14901506Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+19−14SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +1 EloTOR 50.1%
Market-implied ratingsSEA 55.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSEA 54.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSEA 55.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays compared, with each team's league rank
SEAStatTOR
30th of 303.9Runs scored3.929th of 30
14th of 304.4Runs allowed4.413th of 30
24th of 30−0.5Margin−0.422nd of 30
13th of 305–5Last 105–513th of 30
25th of 3027–41Road vs home36–3518th of 30
16th of 301500Opponent Elo15072nd of 30
20th of 301490Elo rating150612th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MarinersBlue Jays
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSEATOR
Run line55–8170–67
Last 104–65–5
Favorite33–5927–43
Underdog22–2243–24
Overs–unders68–60–868–64–5
Overs–unders, last 107–35–4–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SEA 12–18 TOR in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 30.