Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
MLB games
Updated

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Mariners.TV, Sportsnet, TVA

Away

Mariners

64-72

3–4

at

Home

Blue Jays

67-70

SEA 47%TOR 53%

You didn't pick this one.

Rogers Centre · MLB.TV, Mariners.TV, Sportsnet, TVA

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.

TOR75%50%75%SEAStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mariners
  • Cal RaleighBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Kade AndersonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays
  • Brett BatemanBatting1-3, 1 RBI
  • Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 6Kirk singled to right, Straw scored, Bateman to third.3–4
  • 6Bateman singled to left, McAdoo scored, Straw to second.3–3
  • 5Springer walked, Bateman scored. Straw scored, Guerrero Jr. to third on wild pitch by Bazardo.3–2
  • 4Ward singled to left, Naylor scored and Raleigh scored, Young to second.3–0
  • 2Raleigh homered to right (359 feet).1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Blue Jays 53%

Toss-upHit
SEA 47%TOR 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TOR 53%
ML SEA +109 / TOR -117
Pre-line forecast
TOR 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 53%
Ratings vs. market
+0.2 pts
TOR: Elo 53.2%, market 53.0%
Fair odds
TOR -113
SEA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SEA 3.6 – 3.9 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSEATORWhy
Team rating14911505Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers0−10SEA: Kade Anderson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +22 EloTOR 53.2%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 51.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 52.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 53.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays compared, with each team's league rank
SEAStatTOR
30th of 303.9Runs scored3.929th of 30
14th of 304.4Runs allowed4.413th of 30
24th of 30−0.5Margin−0.422nd of 30
11th of 305–5Last 105–511th of 30
25th of 3027–40Road vs home35–3518th of 30
18th of 301500Opponent Elo15071st of 30
19th of 301491Elo rating150512th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MarinersBlue Jays
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSEATOR
Run line54–8170–66
Last 103–76–4
Favorite33–5927–42
Underdog21–2243–24
Overs–unders68–59–868–63–5
Overs–unders, last 108–26–3–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SEA 12–17 TOR in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 29.