Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Okamoto grounded into fielder's choice to third, Springer scored, Straw safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Crawford.1–8
- 7Straw singled to center, Lukes scored, Springer to third.1–7
- 6Okamoto homered to left (400 feet).1–6
- 5Springer homered to left (416 feet).1–5
- 5Lukes homered to right (379 feet).1–4
- 1Giménez singled to center, Springer scored, Sánchez to third.1–3
- 1Okamoto hit sacrifice fly to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer to third.1–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Bateman scored.1–1
- 1Canzone homered to right center (433 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML SEA +131 / TOR -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -135
- SEA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.2 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +21 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +50 Elo | TOR 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 3027–39 | Road vs home | 34–3519th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 19th of 301494 | Elo rating | 150312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–80 | 69–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–59 | 26–42 |
| Underdog | 21–21 | 43–24 |
| Overs–unders | 67–59–8 | 67–63–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 12–16 TOR in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.
- Jul 5TOR 0 @ SEA 4Picked SEA 50%Hit
- Jul 4TOR 0 @ SEA 11Picked SEA 60%Hit
- Jul 3TOR 2 @ SEA 0Picked TOR 55%Hit
- Oct 20SEA 3 @ TOR 4PlayoffsPicked TOR 55%Hit
- Oct 19SEA 2 @ TOR 6PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Hit
- Oct 17TOR 2 @ SEA 6PlayoffsPicked TOR 52%Miss
- Oct 16TOR 8 @ SEA 2PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Miss
- Oct 15TOR 13 @ SEA 4PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Miss