Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Payton TollePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Story singled to center, White scored, Duran to second, Durbin to third.8–9
- 9Rafaela hit sacrifice fly to left, Anthony scored.8–8
- 8Story doubled to left, Durbin scored and Sogard scored.8–7
- 7Raleigh homered to left (355 feet).8–5
- 6Canzone doubled to left, Arozarena scored and Crawford scored.7–5
- 6Arozarena singled to right, We. Wilson scored and Young scored, Crawford to third.5–5
- 5Rafaela singled to center, Wong scored and Anthony scored.3–5
- 5Arozarena singled to left, Young scored, Crawford to second, We. Wilson to third.3–3
- 3Arozarena homered to left (402 feet).2–3
- 2Duran homered to right (409 feet), Sogard scored.1–3
- 1Gasper homered to right center (387 feet).1–1
- 1Rodríguez doubled to left, Arozarena scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML SEA +138 / BOS -148
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.5%, market 58.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -142
- SEA +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.4 – 4.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +81 Elo | BOS 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 3027–42 | Road vs home | 34–3216th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 15435th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–82 | 69–68 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–60 | 38–50 |
| Underdog | 22–22 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 68–61–8 | 64–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 10–12 BOS in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.