Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Blaze AlexanderBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11B. Sullivan singled to left, Rumfield scored and Amador scored.5–6
- 11Rumfield singled to left, Norby scored.5–4
- 11Alexander singled to center, Taveras scored, Beavers to second.5–3
- 11Basallo singled to left, Robert Jr. scored.4–3
- 9Veen doubled to center, Carrigg scored.3–3
- 4Carrigg reached on infield single to third, Goodman scored.3–2
- 3McCarthy tripled to center, Amador scored, McCarthy out at home on runner's fielder's choice. Baltimore Orioles challenged: call on the field was overturned.3–1
- 3Robert Jr. doubled to right, Alonso scored and Holliday scored.3–0
- 3Alonso singled to left, Alexander scored, Holliday to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML BAL -186 / COL +153
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -165
- COL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +9 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +56 Elo | BAL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 12th of 3035–36 | Road vs home | 28–3928th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 141230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–68 | 73–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–40 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 68–61 |
| Overs–unders | 68–66–5 | 65–70–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–4 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.