Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jhonny PeredaBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7White doubled to center, Gasper scored.8–3
- 7Anthony homered to left center (370 feet).8–2
- 6Canzone doubled to center, Pereda scored, Arozarena to third.8–1
- 6Arozarena singled to left, Crawford scored, Pereda to third.7–1
- 6Pereda singled to center, We. Wilson scored and Young scored, Crawford to second.6–1
- 4Story hit a ground rule double, Abreu scored, Durbin to third.4–1
- 3Naylor singled to left, Canzone and Rodríguez scored on throwing error by left fielder Duran, Naylor to second.4–0
- 3Rodríguez singled to center, Crawford scored, Canzone to second.2–0
- 3We. Wilson scored on Sandoval wild pitch, Crawford to second on wild pitch by Sandoval.1–0
- 3We. Wilson scored on Sandoval wild pitch, Crawford to second on wild pitch by Sandoval.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML SEA +123 / BOS -149
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 66.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- SEA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −51 | −2 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 2.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +119 Elo | BOS 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–43 | Road vs home | 35–3317th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 15415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–82 | 69–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–60 | 38–52 |
| Underdog | 24–22 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 70–61–8 | 66–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–13 BOS in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.