Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Witt Jr. homered to left center (394 feet), Collins scored and Jensen scored.2–5
- 5Marte singled to left, Lawlar scored.2–2
- 4Arenado homered to left (430 feet).1–2
- 3Jensen homered to right center (416 feet).0–2
- 2Rave stole third, Rave scored on throwing error by catcher McCann, Isbel to second.0–1
- 2Rave scored on throwing error by catcher McCann, Isbel safe at second on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −11 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +5 Elo | ARI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 12th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 38–3617th of 30 |
| 11th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 11th of 301511 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–66 | 76–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 56–28 | 55–37 |
| Overs–unders | 59–79–8 | 66–74–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–4 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.