Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Josh SmithBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Smith homered to right (371 feet).1–6
- 5Loftin reached on infield single to second, Pasquantino scored, Perez to second.0–6
- 3Perez homered to left center (392 feet), Witt Jr. scored.0–5
- 1Pasquantino homered to right center (406 feet), Rave scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -123 / KC +102
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.9%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- KC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +13 | TOR: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +7 Elo | KC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3035–36 | Road vs home | 37–3415th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–68 | 75–68 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–43 | 21–31 |
| Underdog | 47–25 | 54–37 |
| Overs–unders | 71–67–5 | 66–71–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 13–12 KC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.