Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Austin HedgesBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement singled to center, Smith scored, Giménez to third.6–3
- 5Hedges singled to center, Adell scored and Genao scored, Schneemann to second.5–3
- 5Sánchez singled to center, Lukes scored.5–1
- 5Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Bateman scored, Lukes to third.4–1
- 5Lukes doubled to right, Clement scored and Valenzuela scored, Bateman to third.3–1
- 4Keys singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–1
- 3Genao singled to center, Adell scored, Lowe to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML TOR -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +11 Elo | CLE 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 33–3725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–68 | 68–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–43 | 28–51 |
| Underdog | 44–25 | 40–20 |
| Overs–unders | 69–66–5 | 65–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–13 CLE in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.