Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting3-4
- Joey CantilloPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lukes singled to center, Keys scored, McAdoo to second.11–0
- 8Smith homered to right center (392 feet).10–0
- 6Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Bateman scored, Springer to third.9–0
- 6Springer doubled to center, Straw scored, Bateman to third.8–0
- 3Straw doubled to left, Clement scored, Giménez to third.7–0
- 2Guerrero Jr. homered to left (406 feet), Bateman scored and Springer scored.6–0
- 2Springer grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Giménez scored and Straw scored, Bateman to second, Bateman safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Genao.3–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Bateman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -137 / CLE +114
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | +5 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +4 Elo | TOR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 33–3623rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–68 | 68–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–43 | 28–51 |
| Underdog | 44–25 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 68–66–5 | 64–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–13 CLE in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.