Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-4
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martínez homered to right center (384 feet), Halpin scored.1–6
- 7Genao homered to left (426 feet), Martínez scored.1–4
- 5Bailey homered to center (407 feet), Martínez scored.1–2
- 5Okamoto scored on Williams wild pitch, Clement to second on wild pitch by Williams.1–0
- 5Okamoto scored on Williams wild pitch, Clement to second on wild pitch by Williams.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML TOR +148 / CLE -179
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -159
- TOR +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | TOR: Spencer Miles: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 32–3624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–67 | 67–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–43 | 27–51 |
| Underdog | 44–24 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 68–65–5 | 64–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–12 CLE in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.