Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Royals- John RaveBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Okamoto singled to center, Springer scored, Lukes to third.4–3
- 4Rave homered to right (366 feet).3–3
- 3Okamoto doubled to left, Lukes scored, Okamoto out stretching at third.3–2
- 1Perez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored, Caglianone to third.2–2
- 1Caglianone reached on infield single to second, Jensen scored, Witt Jr. to third.2–1
- 1Lukes singled to left, Kirk scored.2–0
- 1Kirk reached on infield single to third, Guerrero Jr. scored on throwing error by third baseman Rojas, Kirk to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML TOR -111 / KC -108
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.4%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -101
- KC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.8 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −20 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 37–3314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–68 | 75–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–43 | 21–30 |
| Underdog | 46–25 | 54–37 |
| Overs–unders | 71–66–5 | 66–70–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–12 KC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.