Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Sean KeysBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino homered to right (369 feet).9–2
- 9Keys homered to right (399 feet).9–1
- 6Springer doubled to right, Bateman scored and Lukes scored.8–1
- 6Straw hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Clement scored, Lukes to second.6–1
- 2Kirk doubled to center, Straw scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.5–1
- 1Witt Jr. homered to left (410 feet).4–1
- 1Clement doubled to left, Kirk scored and McAdoo scored.4–0
- 1Okamoto singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk to second.2–0
- 1Kirk singled to right, Bateman scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML TOR -102 / KC -119
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- KC: Elo 46.5%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- KC -108
- TOR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.9 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −6 | TOR: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 14th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 37–3213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 10th of 301513 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–68 | 75–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–43 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 45–25 | 54–37 |
| Overs–unders | 70–66–5 | 65–70–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–12 KC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.