Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jose CabreraPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Perez doubled to center, Isbel scored, Witt Jr. scored and Jensen scored.5–4
- 10Jensen doubled to right, Collins scored, Isbel to third.5–1
- 10Arenado singled to center, Marte scored, Moreno to second.5–0
- 10Moreno singled to right, Perdomo scored, Marte to third.4–0
- 10Perdomo singled to right, Vargas scored on error and Waldschmidt scored on fielding error by right fielder Rave, Perdomo to second.3–0
- 10Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML ARI -101 / KC -119
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- KC: Elo 48.4%, market 52.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -108
- ARI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −5 | ARI: Derek Law: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +11 Elo | ARI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 38–3414th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–66 | 76–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 21–31 |
| Underdog | 54–28 | 55–37 |
| Overs–unders | 59–77–8 | 66–72–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–4 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.