Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Eaton singled to right, Duran scored.6–4
- 6Abreu homered to center (408 feet).6–3
- 5Anthony homered to right (418 feet), Duran scored.6–2
- 4Guzman homered to left center (381 feet).6–0
- 3Siri homered to right center (382 feet), Trout scored.5–0
- 3Neto homered to left (375 feet), Peraza scored and Guzman scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 66%
- ML LAA +183 / BOS -224
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 64.7%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -196
- LAA +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +5 | LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +106 Elo | BOS 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–46 | Road vs home | 36–3518th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 28th of 301446 | Elo rating | 15415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–78 | 73–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 41–55 |
| Underdog | 59–53 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 58–84–3 | 68–74–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 12–12 BOS in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.