Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Nick SogardBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto homered to left center (392 feet), d'Arnaud scored.6–1
- 7Sogard singled to center, Story scored.4–1
- 5Trout grounded into double play, second to first, d'Arnaud scored, Neto out at second.4–0
- 3Grissom singled to center, Trout scored, Siri to third.3–0
- 3Siri singled to left, Guzman scored, Trout to second.2–0
- 2Moore grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Grissom scored, Ballesteros out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML LAA +123 / BOS -149
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 65.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- LAA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 4.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +108 Elo | BOS 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 30th of 3024–46 | Road vs home | 36–3417th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–78 | 73–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 41–54 |
| Underdog | 58–53 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 58–83–3 | 68–73–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 11–12 BOS in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.