Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Mickey GasperBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Abreu doubled to center, Rutschman scored.3–2
- 5Gasper homered to right center (392 feet).3–1
- 3Pasquantino singled to right, Jensen scored.3–0
- 3Jensen doubled to left, Collins scored.2–0
- 1Perez singled to left, Jensen scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 65%
- ML KC +177 / BOS -217
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 65.7%, market 65.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -190
- KC +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +20 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +113 Elo | BOS 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–46 | Road vs home | 36–3619th of 30 |
| 27th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 15396th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–70 | 73–74 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 41–56 |
| Underdog | 55–37 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 66–75–6 | 69–74–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–16 BOS in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.