Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz homered to left (381 feet).5–2
- 8Paredes hit sacrifice fly to center, Barrosa scored.5–1
- 8Jensen doubled to right, Collins scored on throwing error by right fielder Barrosa and Rojas scored, Jensen to third. Houston Astros challenged: call on the field was upheld.5–0
- 8Massey homered to right (342 feet).3–0
- 4Rave homered to right (366 feet), Massey scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML KC +141 / HOU -170
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.2%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -152
- KC +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −7 | KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +36 Elo | HOU 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–49 | Road vs home | 38–3820th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301477 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–73 | 78–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 29–41 |
| Underdog | 56–40 | 49–32 |
| Overs–unders | 66–79–6 | 74–68–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 12–11 HOU in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.