Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz homered to right center (377 feet).4–2
- 6Yastrzemski homered to right center (373 feet), Dubón scored and Albies scored.4–1
- 6Albies singled to right, Harris II scored, Dubón to third.1–1
- 4Altuve homered to left (335 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 59%
- ML ATL +133 / HOU -161
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 47.7%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -144
- ATL +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.6 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +16 Elo | ATL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 39–4121st of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 9th of 301532 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–69 | 79–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 50–54 | 30–43 |
| Underdog | 36–15 | 49–33 |
| Overs–unders | 72–75–8 | 75–70–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–5 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.