Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz doubled to left, Paredes scored, Altuve to third. Atlanta Braves challenged: call on the field was upheld.6–3
- 8Yastrzemski homered to left center (350 feet).6–2
- 7Acuña Jr. homered to left center (411 feet), Yastrzemski scored, Riley scored and S. Murphy scored.5–2
- 6Olson singled to center, Baldwin scored, Acuña Jr. thrown out at third.1–2
- 3Paredes singled to right, Peña scored.0–2
- 1Paredes homered to left (356 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML ATL +114 / HOU -137
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 47.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +21 Elo | ATL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 39–4021st of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 9th of 301530 | Elo rating | 149417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–69 | 79–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–54 | 30–42 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 49–33 |
| Overs–unders | 71–75–8 | 74–70–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–5 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.