Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hoerner singled to left, Happ scored.1–2
- 5Suzuki homered to center (408 feet).1–1
- 3Marsee singled to center, Navarreto scored, Marsee to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML MIA +184 / CHC -226
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.4%, market 66.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -197
- MIA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.8 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +73 Elo | CHC 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 66.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3033–47 | Road vs home | 45–359th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15434th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–79 | 78–80 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 43–64 |
| Underdog | 50–42 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 81–73–4 | 86–63–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–12 CHC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.