Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor singled to center, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to second.2–8
- 8Merrill homered to right (432 feet).2–7
- 8Sanoja singled to left, Lopez scored.2–6
- 5France homered to left (388 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Harris scored.1–6
- 5Harris singled to center, Cronenworth scored and Taylor scored, Tatis Jr. to second.1–3
- 5Tatis Jr. singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Taylor to second, Cronenworth to third.1–1
- 3Ramírez homered to left (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML MIA +169 / SD -206
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- SD: Elo 58.4%, market 64.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +59 Elo | SD 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 64.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 24th of 3031–44 | Road vs home | 46–295th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15309th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–77 | 78–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 30–50 |
| Underdog | 47–40 | 48–25 |
| Overs–unders | 77–72–4 | 69–78–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–14 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.