Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado homered to left center (413 feet).4–3
- 5Moreno homered to left (384 feet).4–2
- 3Marsee homered to right center (420 feet), Sanoja scored.4–1
- 2Smith homered to right center (424 feet).2–1
- 2Hernández reached on infield single to third, Edwards scored on throwing error by third baseman Arenado and Marsee scored, Stowers to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML MIA +119 / ARI -143
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +35 Elo | ARI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–44 | Road vs home | 42–3311th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 150712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–77 | 81–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 25–42 |
| Underdog | 46–40 | 56–29 |
| Overs–unders | 77–71–4 | 62–82–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–10 ARI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.