Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lawlar doubled to left, Tawa scored.7–6
- 9Tawa doubled to right, Arenado scored.7–5
- 7Arenado homered to left (348 feet), Perdomo scored and Carroll scored.7–4
- 6Seager singled to right, Jansen scored, Seager to second.7–1
- 6Jansen doubled to left, Duran scored.6–1
- 5Nimmo singled to left, Jung scored.5–1
- 5Jung singled to left, Foscue scored on error and Seager scored on fielding error by left fielder Nootbaar, Jung to second.4–1
- 4Moreno homered to left (373 feet).2–1
- 1Seager homered to center (458 feet), Foscue scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML TEX +110 / ARI -132
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 57.4%, market 54.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +15 | TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +52 Elo | ARI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–44 | Road vs home | 41–319th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 150911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–83 | 81–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–53 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 38–30 | 56–29 |
| Overs–unders | 74–64–11 | 60–81–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–12 ARI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.