Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Carroll hit sacrifice fly to center, Moreno scored.6–2
- 5Duran singled to center, Jung scored and Nimmo scored.6–1
- 5Nimmo doubled to right, Seager scored, Jung to third.4–1
- 5Jung singled to center, Díaz scored, Seager to second.3–1
- 5Díaz singled to center, Burger scored.2–1
- 5Langford homered to left center (435 feet).1–1
- 3Smith singled to left, Tawa scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML TEX +113 / ARI -136
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -123
- TEX +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +9 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +62 Elo | ARI 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–44 | Road vs home | 41–308th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 151210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–83 | 81–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–53 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 37–30 | 56–29 |
| Overs–unders | 74–63–11 | 60–80–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–12 ARI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.