Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Arenado homered to left (371 feet).1–9
- 6Carroll homered to left center (382 feet), Moreno scored.1–8
- 6Moreno singled to center, Marte scored.1–6
- 6Marte doubled to right, Waldschmidt scored.1–5
- 5Moreno singled to center, Marte scored.1–4
- 5Marte doubled to left, Vargas scored and Waldschmidt scored.1–3
- 5Vargas hit a ground rule double, Lawlar scored, Waldschmidt to third.1–1
- 5Pederson doubled to right, Burger scored, Jansen to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML TEX -102 / ARI -118
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ARI -107
- TEX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +41 Elo | ARI 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–43 | Road vs home | 40–308th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 150911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–82 | 80–67 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–53 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 37–29 | 56–29 |
| Overs–unders | 73–63–11 | 59–80–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–11 ARI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.