Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rodríguez homered to left center (410 feet), Canzone scored and Raleigh scored.3–4
- 7Canzone singled to left, Arozarena scored.3–1
- 5Lopez reached on bunt single to pitcher, Carter scored, Burger to second.3–0
- 3Pederson homered to right center (385 feet), Lopez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML TEX -107 / SEA -112
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.0%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -102
- TEX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +15 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–42 | Road vs home | 39–3515th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–82 | 59–87 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–53 | 34–65 |
| Underdog | 36–29 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 73–63–10 | 75–63–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 23–28 SEA in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 51.