Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Danny JansenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Lazaro MontesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to right, Naylor scored, Young to third.10–5
- 8Canzone doubled to right, Arozarena scored.10–4
- 7Jansen singled to center, Carter scored, Lopez to second.10–3
- 5Jansen homered to left center (391 feet), Burger scored and Lopez scored.9–3
- 5Langford homered to left center (438 feet), Duran scored.6–3
- 4Montes homered to center (474 feet), Raleigh scored and Young scored.4–3
- 4Foscue singled to center, Burger scored and Carter scored, Lopez to third.4–0
- 2Lopez singled to left, Langford scored.2–0
- 1Seager homered to right (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML TEX +104 / SEA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 46.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −40 | TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 2.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +26 Elo | TEX 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–41 | Road vs home | 38–3414th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–82 | 59–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–53 | 34–63 |
| Underdog | 34–29 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 72–62–10 | 74–62–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 22–27 SEA in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 49.