Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-4
- George KirbyPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh scored on Alvarado wild pitch, Crawford to third on wild pitch by Alvarado.6–2
- 9Raleigh scored on Alvarado wild pitch, Crawford to third on wild pitch by Alvarado.6–2
- 8Canzone singled to center, Young scored, Arozarena to second.6–1
- 8Butler homered to left center (379 feet), Gelof scored.6–0
- 4Walton doubled to right, Muncy scored.4–0
- 4Muncy singled to center, Gelof scored.3–0
- 3Bolte doubled to right, Williams scored.2–0
- 2Muncy homered to left center (428 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 68%
- ML ATH +201 / SEA -249
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.7%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -215
- ATH +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 2.9 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −30 | −5 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +98 Elo | SEA 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 66.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–42 | Road vs home | 37–3314th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 29th of 301433 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–75 | 58–84 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 33–62 |
| Underdog | 56–47 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 72–64–6 | 73–61–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 15–32 SEA in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 47.