Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jeff McNeilBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady BassoPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor singled to center, Raleigh scored.7–6
- 5Butler singled to center, Gelof scored.7–5
- 5Gelof tripled to right, Williams scored.6–5
- 3Raleigh homered to right center (373 feet), Arozarena scored.5–5
- 3Rodríguez grounded out to shortstop, Rodden scored, Arozarena to second.5–3
- 3Gelof homered to left (398 feet).5–2
- 3McNeil homered to right (362 feet), Bolte scored.4–2
- 3Williams homered to left (356 feet).2–2
- 3Muncy homered to left (349 feet).1–2
- 2Crawford singled to right, Young scored.0–2
- 2Young doubled to right, Raleigh scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 68%
- ML ATH +202 / SEA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.9%, market 68.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -216
- ATH +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 2.7 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +17 | ATH: Kade Morris: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +99 Elo | SEA 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 68.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3030–42 | Road vs home | 37–3213th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 29th of 301432 | Elo rating | 149021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–75 | 58–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 33–61 |
| Underdog | 55–47 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 71–64–6 | 72–61–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 14–32 SEA in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 46.