Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kade AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil doubled to right, Heim scored.7–4
- 8Muncy singled to left, McNeil scored, Walton to second.6–4
- 6Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Arozarena scored, Canzone out at second.5–4
- 6Walton homered to right center (392 feet).5–3
- 5Butler singled to center, Bolte scored and Gelof scored.4–3
- 2Williams grounded into double play, third to second to first, McNeil scored, Serven out at second, Stefanic to third. Athletics challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–3
- 1Montes singled to left, Raleigh scored, Young to second.1–3
- 1Raleigh singled to right, Rodríguez scored.1–2
- 1Rodríguez doubled to center, Arozarena scored.1–1
- 1Gelof homered to right center (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 66%
- ML ATH +181 / SEA -223
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.0%, market 66.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -194
- ATH +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.0 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Kade Anderson: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +92 Elo | SEA 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 66.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 3029–42 | Road vs home | 37–3112th of 30 |
| 24th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 29th of 301429 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–75 | 58–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 33–60 |
| Underdog | 54–47 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 70–64–6 | 71–61–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 13–32 SEA in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 45.