Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting1-4
- Gage JumpPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4
- Bryan WooPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Crawford singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second.0–2
- 4Raleigh singled to left, Canzone scored, Rodríguez to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 65%
- ML ATH +177 / SEA -217
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.3%, market 65.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -190
- ATH +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 2.8 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +66 Elo | SEA 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 65.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–42 | Road vs home | 37–3416th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 29th of 301437 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–75 | 58–85 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 33–63 |
| Underdog | 57–47 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 73–64–6 | 74–61–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 16–32 SEA in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 48.