Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kade AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Seager homered to left (355 feet).2–3
- 4Young doubled to right, Ward scored and Naylor scored.1–3
- 2Ward singled to center, Raleigh scored.1–1
- 2Burger homered to center (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML TEX +123 / SEA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -133
- TEX +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Kade Anderson: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +10 Elo | SEA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–41 | Road vs home | 38–3515th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–82 | 59–86 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–53 | 34–64 |
| Underdog | 35–29 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 73–62–10 | 75–62–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 23–27 SEA in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 50.