Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Lars NootbaarBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll homered to right (423 feet), Troy scored.7–8
- 8Lawlar homered to left center (412 feet), Tawa scored.7–6
- 7Edwards singled to right, Stowers scored.7–4
- 7Stowers doubled to center, Mack scored.6–4
- 5Carroll singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Perdomo to second, Moreno to third.5–4
- 4Sanoja homered to left (397 feet).5–3
- 4Marsee homered to right center (390 feet).4–3
- 3Nootbaar homered to right center (391 feet), Lawlar scored.3–3
- 3Smith stole home, Lawlar stole second, Lawlar safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Lopez.3–1
- 3Smith stole home, Lawlar stole second, Lawlar safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Lopez.3–1
- 2Mack hit sacrifice fly to left, Sanoja scored.3–0
- 2Sanoja tripled to center, Conine scored and Marsee scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML MIA +110 / ARI -132
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.1%, market 54.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +28 Elo | ARI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 25th of 3029–43 | Road vs home | 41–3210th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 150812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–77 | 81–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 25–40 |
| Underdog | 44–40 | 56–29 |
| Overs–unders | 76–70–4 | 61–81–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–9 ARI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.