Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Marte doubled to center, Vargas scored.4–2
- 11Ruiz doubled to center, Lopez scored, Serna scored and Stowers scored.4–1
- 4Conine homered to right center (401 feet).1–1
- 1Moreno homered to left center (431 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML MIA +128 / ARI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.6%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -139
- MIA +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −7 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +46 Elo | ARI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3029–44 | Road vs home | 42–329th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 18th of 301491 | Elo rating | 150912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–77 | 81–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 45–40 | 56–29 |
| Overs–unders | 77–70–4 | 62–81–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–10 ARI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.