San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ethan SalasBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mason AdamsPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Karros homered to center (424 feet), Norby scored.9–3
- 6France doubled to right, Harris scored.9–1
- 5Salas homered to right (372 feet), Taylor scored.8–1
- 5Taylor singled to center, Merrill scored and Bogaerts scored.6–1
- 4Harris tripled to center, Taylor scored.4–1
- 2Salas homered to center (426 feet).3–1
- 1Amador grounded into fielder's choice to third, McCarthy scored, Karros to second, Norby out at third.2–1
- 1Cronenworth reached on infield single to shortstop, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second, Merrill to third.2–0
- 1France hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML SD -168 / COL +139
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- SD: Elo 62.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -150
- COL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.9 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +12 | SD: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Mason Adams: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +87 Elo | SD 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 16th of 3035–39 | Road vs home | 31–4228th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 140730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–75 | 78–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–50 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 73–68 |
| Overs–unders | 68–78–5 | 73–72–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–1–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 33–17 COL in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 50.