San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cesar PerdomoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gilbert homered to right (370 feet), Koss scored.7–6
- 8Cavanaugh homered to right (355 feet).7–4
- 7Bogaerts scored on error, Tatis Jr. safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Whitcomb, Taylor safe at third on error.7–3
- 6Tatis Jr. homered to left (421 feet).6–3
- 5Cronenworth reached on bunt single to third, Hays scored.5–3
- 4Harris hit sacrifice fly to center, Taylor scored.4–3
- 3Merrill homered to center (405 feet).3–3
- 2Whitcomb homered to center (406 feet).2–3
- 2Harris singled to left, Bogaerts scored and Hays scored, Tatis Jr. to second.2–2
- 1Devers homered to right center (389 feet), Gilbert scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML SD -192 / SF +158
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- SD: Elo 54.3%, market 62.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -170
- SF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Cesar Perdomo: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +30 Elo | SD 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 36–3720th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–72 | 74–74 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–47 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 54–44 |
| Overs–unders | 64–78–5 | 69–66–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 32–18 SF in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 50.