Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jackson KentPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting4-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill reached on infield single to second, Bogaerts scored, France to second.2–9
- 7Merrill homered to center (412 feet).2–8
- 5Merrill homered to left (363 feet), France scored.2–7
- 4Tatis Jr. singled to left, Taylor scored.2–5
- 4Taylor reached on bunt single to pitcher, Hays scored on throwing error by pitcher Kent, Taylor to second.2–4
- 3Merrill tripled to right, Machado scored and France scored.2–3
- 3France singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second.2–1
- 3Crews singled to right, Nuñez scored, Wood to second, Young to third.2–0
- 3Ruiz homered to right (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML WSH +154 / SD -187
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SD: Elo 61.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -165
- WSH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | WSH: Jackson Kent: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +81 Elo | SD 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3034–40 | Road vs home | 45–295th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 27th of 301468 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–63 | 73–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 25–47 |
| Underdog | 63–45 | 48–25 |
| Overs–unders | 76–62–9 | 62–78–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–16 SD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.