New York Yankees at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Spencer JonesBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario reached on infield single to pitcher, Goldschmidt scored on error and Jones scored on throwing error by pitcher Morejon.3–4
- 8Jones doubled to left, Bellinger scored, Goldschmidt to third.1–4
- 7Campusano homered to left center (433 feet).0–4
- 1Machado homered to center (416 feet).0–3
- 1Cronenworth homered to left (343 feet).0–2
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to right (371 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML NYY +100 / SD -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SD: Elo 48.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.4 – 3.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +5 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +13 Elo | NYY 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 3044–30 | Road vs home | 42–297th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301547 | Elo rating | 15209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–66 | 73–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–57 | 25–44 |
| Underdog | 25–9 | 48–25 |
| Overs–unders | 60–77–5 | 61–77–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–4 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.