New York Yankees at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Machado homered to left center (391 feet).5–1
- 3Lombard Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Rice scored.5–0
- 2Bellinger singled to right, Caballero scored and Wells scored, Goldschmidt to third.4–0
- 2Goldschmidt walked, Jones scored, Wells to second, Caballero to third.2–0
- 2Jones doubled to right, Rice scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML NYY +105 / SD -126
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- SD: Elo 49.8%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +1 Elo | NYY 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3043–30 | Road vs home | 42–284th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–66 | 73–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–57 | 25–43 |
| Underdog | 24–9 | 48–25 |
| Overs–unders | 60–76–5 | 61–76–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–4 SD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.