New York Yankees at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Campusano homered to left (394 feet), Harris scored.2–3
- 10Jones singled to center, García Jr. scored, Jones to second.2–1
- 3Rice homered to center (444 feet).1–1
- 2Bogaerts singled to center, France scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -114 / SD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.8%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.5 – 3.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +12 Elo | NYY 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 1st of 3043–29 | Road vs home | 41–286th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 4th of 301546 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–66 | 73–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–57 | 25–42 |
| Underdog | 23–9 | 48–25 |
| Overs–unders | 60–75–5 | 61–75–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–3 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.