Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Riley CornelioPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Campusano singled to right, Machado scored, France to third.4–5
- 8Machado singled to center, Fermin scored and Tatis Jr. scored.4–4
- 8Hays hit sacrifice fly to right, Bogaerts scored, Fermin to third.4–2
- 8Chaparro homered to left (337 feet).4–1
- 7Merrill hit sacrifice fly to right, Machado scored, France to third.3–1
- 6House doubled to center, Abrams scored and Ortiz scored.3–0
- 2Morales homered to left (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML WSH +158 / SD -193
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- SD: Elo 58.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | WSH: Riley Cornelio (no track record yet) · SD: Casey Mize: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +62 Elo | SD 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 44–295th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 27th of 301469 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–63 | 73–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 25–46 |
| Underdog | 62–45 | 48–25 |
| Overs–unders | 75–62–9 | 61–78–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–15 SD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.