Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Crews homered to left center (416 feet), Ortiz scored.2–3
- 3Merrill singled to center, Machado scored, Merrill to second.0–3
- 3Machado singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Cronenworth to second.0–2
- 1Merrill singled to right, Machado scored, France to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML WSH +164 / SD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- SD: Elo 61.2%, market 63.8%
- Fair odds
- SD -176
- WSH +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +3 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +79 Elo | SD 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 43–296th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 27th of 301469 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–63 | 73–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 25–45 |
| Underdog | 61–45 | 48–25 |
| Overs–unders | 75–61–9 | 61–77–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–14 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.